Month Forward: November 2025 Key Events Watchlist
November is data‑heavy: jobs, inflation, and a double release day for US GDP and PCE. We highlight the dates and why they matter.
As Q4 gathers pace, the focus turns to how quickly inflation cools and how growth holds up. Markets will read jobs and inflation prints for clues on the path of rates. The month also includes a busy earnings stretch across tech, retail, and consumer names.
Building on our analysis from last month’s forecast, the question now is simple: do jobs and prices slow enough to support easier policy into year‑end—or does sticky inflation keep risk assets on edge?
November 2025 Economic Calendar
These are the month’s market-moving releases we think most traders should watch. For the full list (including second-tier prints and country details), follow the FXIFY™ Economic Calendar.
Set alerts ahead of each release, mind your session/liquidity conditions, and always re-check times on official pages in case of late schedule changes.
| Date | Asset | Events |
|---|---|---|
| Week Two: Nov 3 – 9 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| USD | BoE Interest Rate Decision | |
| CAD | Jobs Report | |
| Week Three: Nov 10 – 16 | USD | CPI & Core CPI |
| Week Four: Nov 17 – 23 | CAD | CPI & Core CPI |
| GBP | CPI & Core CPI | |
| USD | FOMC Minutes | |
| Week Five: Nov 24 – 30 | USD | Core PCE + Personal Income/Spending |
| USD | GDP QoQ (Q3, 2nd Estimate) | |
| CAD | GDP (Q3 QoQ & Annualised) |
These are the month’s market-moving releases we think most traders should watch. For the full list (including second-tier prints and country details), follow the FXIFY™ Economic Calendar. Set alerts ahead of each release, mind your session/liquidity conditions, and always re-check times on official pages in case of late schedule changes.
1. GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov 6)
The Bank of England sets the UK policy rate and signals its stance on inflation and growth. Traders watch the statement, the vote split, and any hints about the timing and pace of future moves. Small wording changes can quickly shift GBP crosses.
A hawkish tone (inflation still a concern) tends to support GBP, while a dovish lean (softer prices or growth risks) can weigh on it. The press conference often clarifies the message and can extend volatility.
According to the Trading Central Economic Calendar (available in your FXIFY dashboard), recent BoE days showed an average one-hour range of ~40.81 pips on GBP/USD, with 50% of outcomes bullish and 50% bearish.
2. USD – Core CPI m/m (Nov 13)
Core CPI strips out food and energy and is the most traded monthly inflation print for USD pairs. It shapes expectations for the Fed’s path and often sets the tone for risk appetite across equities, gold, and major FX.
A hot surprise is hawkish (yields up, USD firmer, risk softer). A cool reading is dovish (yields down, USD softer, risk steadier). Markets also react to revisions and the mix between services and goods.
According to Trading Central (FXIFY dashboard), EUR/USD has averaged ~42.02 pips of one-hour range on recent Core CPI releases, with ~64% of outcomes finishing bullish EUR/USD (USD weaker).
3. USD – Core PCE m/m (Nov 26)
Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The month-on-month change shows near-term momentum and arrives with personal income and spending, giving a clean read on demand and price pressures.
Hot PCE or strong spending supports a hawkish path (USD bid); cool PCE or softer spending leans dovish (USD offered). With US Thanksgiving the next day, liquidity can thin after the initial move.
Trading Central data shows EUR/USD averages ~25.71 pips of one-hour range around Core PCE—quieter than CPI but still meaningful for front-end yields and USD pairs.
November 2025 Earnings Calendar
Q3 earnings season continues into November. Big US tech and retailers can sway indices and FX via “risk‑on / risk‑off” flows. Dates below come from investor relations pages where available; (est.) means timing is not yet posted on IR and is sourced from reputable calendars.
| Date | Company | Ticker | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 13 | The Walt Disney Company | DIS | Communication Services |
| Tue, Nov 18 | Home Depot | HD | Consumer Discretionary |
| Wed, Nov 19 | NVIDIA | NVDA | Information Technology |
| Thu, Nov 20 | Walmart | WMT | Consumer Staples |
| Wed, Nov 12 (est.) | Cisco Systems | CSCO | Information Technology |
| Fri, Nov 21 (est.) | Alibaba Group | BABA | Consumer Discretionary |
Key Story: Gold (XAUUSD) & USDJPY
This month’s key story highlights Gold and USDJPY—two markets at important technical areas as we head into US inflation updates (Core CPI, 13 Nov; Core PCE, 26 Nov). Cooler inflation often lowers US real yields (supportive for gold, negative for USDJPY); hotter data tends to do the reverse.
Gold (XAUUSD)
The daily chart shows an ascending channel defined by a rising base trendline (red) and a higher guide line (green). After a sharp rally to fresh highs, price has pulled back to the green guide, which now acts as first support. Holding this line keeps the bias pointed back toward the upper channel; a decisive daily close below the green guide would open room toward the red base where buyers may regroup into the mid- and late-month data releases.
USDJPY
The daily chart shows a clean ascending channel: a rising base (red) connecting higher lows since late April, and an upper guide (green) capping rallies. Price sits in the upper half of the channel, just below 152.8–153.2, with the 150.0 round number as the first pullback pivot.
Into US Core CPI (13 Nov) and Core PCE (26 Nov), the map is straightforward. A daily close above 153 would keep momentum pointed toward the 155.00 area and the channel top. A clear rejection at the guide followed by a close back under 150 would warn of a deeper move toward the rising base near 148.0–148.5.
Trade the levels, not the headline: look for break-and-retest around 150/153 instead of chasing the first spike after data.
Wrapping Up November’s Outlook
The key catalysts we’re trading around are BoE (6 Nov), US Core CPI (13 Nov), and US Core PCE (26 Nov). Keep size sensible into releases, use alerts, and track live updates via the FXIFY™ Economic Calendar.
