Month Forward: June 2025 Key Events Watchlist

As June begins, traders are looking ahead to a month packed with key events that could shape global markets. From US inflation data and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision to policy updates in Japan and supply-side news in energy, there are plenty of catalysts that may drive movement across indices, commodities, and currency pairs.

While recent months have brought mixed signals across sectors — including ongoing volatility in tech, energy, and currency markets — June’s calendar offers a fresh chance to reassess market direction and position accordingly.

June 2025 Economic Calendar

Taking a look at our FXIFY™ economic calendar, here are our top picks for economic news to look out for in June.

The first half of June is packed with important US data releases, including JOLTS job openings, CPI, GDP, and the FOMC decision. These events will likely set the tone for dollar strength across major pairs. At the same time, UK GDP, Japanese policy updates, and key inflation reports from Australia and Canada will provide insight into broader global conditions.

As traders move through June, it’s important to stay aware of heightened volatility around these releases. Keep in mind that news trading is prohibited 5 minutes before and after the announcement on Instant Funding and Lightning Challenge accounts.

1. USD – Federal Funds Rate

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its June 18 meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool currently pricing in a 97.9% probability of no change to the current 425–450 bps target. While markets are not expecting a rate cut this month, traders will be focused on Chair Powell’s press conference for clues about the Fed’s outlook for later in the year.

With inflation still running above target and labor market data showing some softening, Powell’s tone will be key in shaping expectations — whether the Fed remains patient or signals that cuts may come later in 2025.

According to Trading Central, past Fed decisions have triggered an average range of 46.39 pips in EUR/USD within the first hour after the announcement. Historically, around 38% of those moves ended bullish, while 63% ended bearish — making it one of the month’s most consistently high-volatility events.

2. US Core CPI 

The US Consumer Price Index release comes just days before the Fed meeting (June 18), making it a critical input into U.S. interest rate decisions. A higher-than-expected CPI print could strengthen the dollar by reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, while a softer number might spark risk-on sentiment and weigh on USD.

According to Trading Central, US CPI releases have historically triggered an average 40.48-pip range in EUR/USD within the first hour after the data drops. Interestingly, past reactions have been evenly split — with 50% of events ending bullish and 50% bearish — making this a key event for volatility, but with no clear directional bias.

3. JPY – Bank of Japan Policy Decision

The Bank of Japan’s June 14 interest rate decision is not just important for yen pairs but could influence global markets. With Japan’s inflation showing signs of persistence, there has been growing speculation throughout 2024–2025 about whether the BoJ will finally shift away from its ultra-loose policy stance.

A meaningful adjustment or even a shift in tone could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, where global investors who borrowed cheaply in yen to fund riskier trades may start pulling back. This could lead to broader market volatility, affecting not only USD/JPY but also equities, commodities, and emerging market currencies.

According to Trading Central, past BoJ decisions have produced an average 55.52-pip range in USD/JPY within the first hour. Historically, 38% of these events ended bullish and 63% bearish — signaling a tendency toward downside reactions after the announcement.

June 2025 Earnings Calendar

The first half of June brings several earnings reports from major tech and consumer companies. While the overall lineup is lighter compared to May, the upcoming results will still offer important signals for sector sentiment and broader equity indices. Markets will be watching how companies in technology, logistics, and retail are navigating demand, costs, and global economic conditions.

📅 Earnings Calendar – May 2025

This month’s key earnings will provide insights into trends across AI, cloud, logistics, and consumer sectors.

Strong tech results could help extend the momentum seen after Nvidia’s May report, while FedEx and Nike will be closely watched for clues about global shipping activity and consumer demand. These outcomes may not only influence individual stocks but also shape broader risk sentiment across markets.

Key Story: Nasdaq 100 vs WTI Crude Oil

This month’s key narrative is the contrast between the Nasdaq 100 and WTI Crude Oil — two markets reflecting diverging trends and sentiment.

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) has rebounded sharply since April, climbing back above prior resistance.. The index is holding above this key horizontal zone, and as long as it remains supported, the structure suggests momentum could continue toward the all-time highs. However, failure to hold this support may trigger a corrective pullback.

Meanwhile, WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) remains under pressure, stuck below horizontal resistance and trading within a broader downtrend. The repeated inability to break higher raises the risk of a renewed push lower. A clean break above the line would be needed to shift the short-term bias back to bullish.

The setup is clear: if tech momentum holds, indices like the Nasdaq may extend higher, but persistent weakness in energy could signal caution about global growth. Watching how these two assets behave in June may offer clues about broader market direction and risk appetite.

Wrapping Up June’s Outlook

June is shaping up to be an active month, with key events that could influence market direction, including central bank decisions, inflation reports, and critical earnings from tech and consumer leaders.

These developments will help clarify the outlook for interest rates, sector strength, and global growth.

Traders should stay attentive to how assets like the Nasdaq, crude oil, and major currency pairs react around these releases.

With your FXIFY account, you can use Trading Central’s tools to support your trading decisions. The Economic Calendar helps you track upcoming events, Technical Views provide clear chart analysis, and Featured Ideas highlight potential setups based on technical and macro factors — all designed to keep your trading process informed and consistent.