Month Forward: December 2025 Key Events Watchlist
December 2025 is unlike any other. With NFP delayed until mid-month and the Fed deciding on rates before the jobs report, volatility is likely to persist.
As the final month of 2025 begins, the market narrative isn’t just about if they will cut—it’s about what data they are using.
Following the 43-day US government shutdown earlier this quarter, the economic calendar has been thrown into disarray. The standard “First Friday” NFP is gone, pushed to mid-month. This creates a high-stakes anomaly: The Federal Reserve will deliver its final rate decision of the year before seeing the official November jobs report.
With the ECB and BoE also lining up for a “Super Thursday” clash on 18 December, liquidity may be thinning, but the event risk is at yearly highs.
December 2025 Economic Calendar
Taking a look at our FXIFYâ„¢ Economic Calendar, here are the critical (and rescheduled) dates to watch.
| Date | Asset | Events |
|---|---|---|
| Week One: Dec 1–5 | USD | ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI |
| CAD | Unemployment Rate & Employment Change | |
| Week Two: Dec 8–12 | USD | US CPI & Core CPI (Nov) |
| USD | FOMC Rate Decision & Projections | |
| CAD | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | |
| Week Three: Dec 15–19 | USD | Non-Farm Payrolls (Delayed Release) |
| GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | |
| EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision | |
| Week Four: Dec 22–26 | USD | US Core PCE Inflation |
| USD | US GDP (Final Read) |
1. USD – FOMC Rate Decision & Projections (10 Dec)
Normally, the Fed has the NFP report in hand before deciding on rates. Not this time.
Because of the shutdown-induced delays, the FOMC meets on Wednesday, 10 December—six days before the November jobs data is released.
- The Risk: “Flying Blind.” Without the latest labour data, Fed Chair Powell may adopt a cautious, “hawkish hold” stance to avoid a policy error.
- The Data: According to Trading Central, recent Fed decisions have heavily favoured USD strength.
- The Volatility: As seen in the dashboard below, EUR/USD has ended bearish 88% of the time one hour after recent Fed decisions, with an average range of 62.76 pips.
2. USD – The Delayed NFP (16 Dec)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has rescheduled the release of the November Employment Situation to Tuesday, 16 December.
This rare Tuesday release could catch markets off-guard.
- Why it matters: Traders will be trying to “retroactively” grade the Fed’s decision from the week prior.
- Volatility Warning: If the NFP number contradicts the Fed’s tone (e.g., the Fed was hawkish, but NFP comes in incredibly weak), expect explosive reversal moves.
- Historical Impact: Despite the date change, the event’s power remains. Recent NFP prints have generated an average one-hour range of 63.24 pips on EUR/USD, with a fairly even split between bullish (55%) and bearish (45%) outcomes.
3. EUR & GBP – “Super Thursday” (18 Dec)
Just two days after the NFP shock, Europe takes the stage.
- ECB (18 Dec): With Eurozone growth lagging, markets expect President Lagarde to lean dovish. The focus is on whether they commit to aggressive cuts in Q1 2026.
- BoE (18 Dec): The “Old Lady” is in a tougher spot. As shown below, the market reaction is a coin toss—50% bullish, 50% bearish for GBP/USD—reflecting the uncertainty. The average range is tighter at 39.99 pips, suggesting the wording of the statement will matter more than the rate move itself.
📅 Earnings Calendar – December 2025
A final wave of tech and retail giants reports this month, offering clues on business spending and holiday consumer strength.
| Date | Company | Ticker | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Dec | Salesforce | CRM | Tech (Software) |
| 9 Dec | Oracle | ORCL | Tech (Cloud) |
| 11 Dec | Costco Wholesale | COST | Consumer Staples |
| Broadcom | AVGO | Tech (Semiconductors) | |
| 16 Dec | Adobe | ADBE | Tech (Creative Software) |
Key Story: The “Santa Rally” (S&P 500) vs DXY
This month’s key story is the battle between seasonal equity strength and the “Unknowns” of the data calendar.
S&P 500 (US500) – The Channel
While December is historically strong (“Santa Claus Rally”), the US500 is currently in a healthy correction.
- The Visual: As shown in the chart below, price has been respecting a clear upward channel. We recently hit the “Red Zone” (upper channel)—typically an area where rallies exhaust—and have pulled back to the midline.
- The Setup: Bulls will look for the “Green Zone” (lower channel) to hold as support for a year-end push. A break below this channel would invalidate the uptrend.
US Dollar Index (USDX) – The Breakout Test
The Greenback is trying to find its footing after bottoming out in late summer.
- The Visual: The chart highlights two clear zones. Price has recovered from the “Support Zone” (Green Box ~96.50) and is now testing the “Resistance Zone” (Red Box ~101.00).
- The Setup: We are currently pressing against that Red Zone. A clean break above 101.00—perhaps fuelled by a cautious Fed—would open the door for a larger recovery. Rejection here sends us back toward the green range.
Wrapping Up December’s Outlook
December 2025 is a month of anomalies: a Tuesday NFP, a “blind” Fed, and a packed Super Thursday.
The critical window is 10–18 December. Once this gauntlet clears, expect spreads to widen significantly as institutional desks close for the holidays.
Reminder: With the calendar shifts, “standard” timing patterns may not apply.
Use the FXIFYâ„¢ Economic Calendar to set alerts for the exact release times of the delayed data.
