The FXIFY Trading Desk Brief: Week of 16 November 2026

Situation Report

The Fed debate changed from whether to hike to how much. October NFP was +165,000 against estimates of 59,000 to 65,000. The October CPI on Tuesday 10 November rose 0.4% and core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month, both above forecasts. Hours before that release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning toward supporting a 25 basis point hike in December, while adding that a 50 basis point hike should be considered if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher.

CME FedWatch now treats a December hike as a near-certainty, with roughly a 10% to 15% chance of a 50 basis point move. Futures imply the policy range reaching 4.50%–4.75% by June, per Schwab, up from the current 3.75%–4.00%.

Rates and the dollar moved with it. The 10-year Treasury yield traded between about 5.07% and 5.09% in US trading on Thursday 12 November, while the 2-year yield rose about 18 basis points to 4.74% on 10 November. The Dollar Index is near 102.9, close to its yearly high.

On Thursday, Nvidia announced that CEO Jensen Huang resigned effective immediately, with CFO Colette Kress serving as interim CEO and CFO. The stock fell as much as 14% at the open before trimming losses, in an AI trade that had already pulled back since 5 November. Nvidia reports earnings on Tuesday 17 November.

October PPI releases on Friday 13 November at 1:30 PM GMT, with Dow Jones consensus at +0.4% headline and +0.3% core. US releases land at 1:30 PM GMT since the 1 November clock change. All times in this brief are GMT.

Last Week in Review

NFP October: +165,000, unemployment 4.1%

BLS reported payrolls up 165,000 in October, against a 12-month average gain of 48,000. Revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, with participation at 61.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month to $38.00 and 3.1% on the year. Gains were in professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing. The broader U-6 underemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.6%.

CPI October: headline 0.4%, core 0.3%, no annual rate

Headline CPI rose 0.4% after 0.6% in September, above the 0.3% Dow Jones forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast and the same pace as August and September. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for over 30% of the monthly increase. Gasoline rose 1.0% after 9.1% in September, and electricity rose 0.9%. As flagged in the 9 November brief, BLS could not publish October 2025 indexes, so it did not publish 12-month changes for this release.

Waller: 25 basis points leaning, 50 on the table

In a London speech on 10 November, Waller said he was leaning toward supporting a 25 basis point increase in December even though he expected October inflation to improve. He added that if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, similar to the past two monthly readings, 50 basis points should be considered. Core came in at 0.3%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said policy is at least 50 basis points below the level that would be modestly restrictive.

Jobless claims: 200,000, above forecast

Initial claims for the week ending 7 November were 200,000 against 195,000 expected, up from a revised 191,000. The four-week average was unchanged at 195,250, and continuing claims fell 20,000 to 1.697 million.

UK GDP: Q3 at 0.7%, September at 0.2%

The ONS reported UK GDP grew 0.7% in Q3, up from 0.5% in Q2, matching the Reuters poll and the Bank of England’s November projection. September grew 0.2% against flat growth expected, and August was revised down to 0.0% from 0.1%. Sterling traded near $1.3266 shortly after the release, per Reuters, and weakened to about $1.3233 by the London close from $1.3284 on Wednesday, per Share Talk, as US rate hike bets supported the dollar.

Nvidia and the AI trade

Nvidia’s 8-K confirmed Huang’s resignation as CEO, president and board member, with Harvey C. Jones named the first chair of the board. Nvidia said its fiscal third-quarter results remain scheduled for 17 November. The S&P 500 pared an early loss on Thursday and traded near flat by midday, while the 10-year yield reached 5.09%. As of 11 November, Schwab noted the Nasdaq 100 was down about 9.5% over the previous month.

Events and Releases, 13–19 November

Friday 13 November: Producer Price Index, October (USD) | 1:30 PM GMT | Impact: HIGH

The Setup

September PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, and core excluding food and energy rose 0.7%. Dow Jones consensus for October is +0.4% headline, +0.3% core, and 6.6% year-on-year. September core PPI rose 0.7%.

The October CPI showed gasoline up 1.0%, a smaller energy contribution than in September.

After the CPI, economists estimated October core PCE rose 0.4%, and Reuters reported that Friday’s producer prices could change that estimate. The BEA publishes October PCE on 25 November.

The Key Number

Core PPI month-on-month against 0.3%.

The Split

Bullish USD: Core at 0.4% or higher, which would add to pricing for a larger December move.

Bearish USD: Core at 0.2% or lower. It would be consistent with December pricing staying at 25 basis points.

Tuesday 17 November: RBA Minutes, 3 November Meeting (AUD) | 12:30 AM GMT | Impact: MEDIUM

The Setup

The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November in a 6-3 vote. The minutes are released at 11:30 AM AEDT on Tuesday 17 November, which is 12:30 AM GMT.

The minutes should provide more detail on the case for the November increase and the arguments made by the three members who voted to hold. The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy said labour market conditions had eased by more than expected, with unemployment averaging 4.6% in the September quarter against its 4.4% forecast.

The Key Number

The balance between the arguments for further tightening and the case for holding at 4.85%.

The Split

Bullish AUD: The minutes show a strong preference for further tightening if inflation remains elevated.

Bearish AUD: The minutes emphasise weaker labour conditions and the need to assess the effect of previous increases.

Tuesday 17 November: UK Labour Market Data (GBP) | 7:00 AM GMT | Impact: MEDIUM

The Setup

UK unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August. The labour market data arrives one day before October CPI and will provide another input into expectations for the Bank of England’s December decision.

The BoE raised Bank Rate to 4.00% on 5 November in an 8-1 vote. It expects CPI to rise to around 5% by mid-2027.

The Key Number

The unemployment rate and the pace of employment growth.

The Split

Bullish GBP: A stronger labour market would make further tightening easier to justify.

Bearish GBP: Higher unemployment or weaker employment would strengthen the case for waiting.

Tuesday 17 November: US Retail Sales, October (USD) | 1:30 PM GMT | Impact: HIGH

The Setup

September retail sales rose 0.8%, but gasoline station sales rose 6.4% and the control group, which feeds into GDP, rose only 0.1%. October gasoline rose 1.0% in the CPI data, a smaller price effect than September. No consensus had been published at the time of writing. Trading Economics models +0.6% for the headline and +0.1% for the control group.

Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. The BEA reported real consumer spending was essentially flat in September, even as Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualised.

The Key Number

The control group month-on-month. A headline driven by fuel prices carries less information about demand than a control group gain.

The Split

Bullish USD: Control group at 0.3% or higher with a firm headline. It would show spending holding up while the Fed considers a larger hike.

Bearish USD: Control group at zero or lower. It would add to the case for a 25 basis point December move.

Tuesday 17 November: Nvidia Earnings, Equity Risk | About 9:20 PM GMT | Impact: EVENT RISK

The Setup

Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results at about 1:20 PM PT, which is 9:20 PM GMT, as previously scheduled. It is the first report since Huang’s resignation, with Kress serving as interim CEO and CFO. The result lands after the US close, so the reaction appears in Wednesday’s Asian and European sessions, hours before the FOMC minutes.

Wednesday 18 November: UK Consumer Price Index, October (GBP) | 7:00 AM GMT | Impact: CRITICAL

The Setup

September CPI was 3.5%, with core at 2.8% and services at 3.7%. The Ofgem price cap rose 4% from 1 October, from £1,663 to £1,723, and first appears directly in the October data. Deutsche Bank forecasts 3.80% headline, 2.87% core and 3.87% services. Trading Economics models 3.5%. No consensus had been published at the time of writing.

The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00% on 5 November and expects CPI around 5% by mid-2027. Views after Thursday’s GDP range from a December hike to waiting until February. UK labour market data releases at 7:00 AM GMT on Tuesday 17 November, after unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August. The next BoE decision is 17 December, the day after November CPI on 16 December.

The Key Number

Headline against 3.8% and services against 3.7%.

The Split

Bullish GBP: Headline at 3.8% or higher with services above 3.7%. It would support the case for further tightening.

Bearish GBP: Headline at 3.5% or lower with services easing. It would support waiting until February.

Wednesday 18 November: FOMC Minutes, 27–28 October Meeting (USD) | 7:00 PM GMT | Impact: HIGH

The Setup

The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike. The minutes release at 2:00 PM ET.

The minutes predate three developments: the +165,000 payroll print, the CPI release, and Waller’s remarks about a 50 basis point move. They will show how widely participants favoured tightening at that meeting and whether larger moves were discussed. The next decision is on 9 December.

The Key Number

The number of participants who judged further increases would likely be appropriate soon, and any reference to the pace of tightening.

The Split

Bullish USD: Minutes show broad support for near-term increases or discussion of larger moves. Odds of a 50 basis point December hike would likely rise from the current 10% to 15%.

Bearish USD: Minutes emphasise a gradual pace and more data. Odds of a 50 basis point move would likely fall.

Thursday 19 November: Australia Labour Force, October (AUD) | 12:30 AM GMT | Impact: HIGH

The Setup

September employment fell 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7%, a five-year high, though the ABS flagged the monthly figures may be noisy. The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy said labour market conditions have eased by more than expected, with unemployment averaging 4.6% in the September quarter against its 4.4% forecast. It projects unemployment a bit over 5% by the end of 2028.

The RBA hiked to 4.85% on 3 November on a 6-3 vote. The labour force release lands before European markets open. No consensus had been published at the time of writing.

The Key Number

Unemployment against 4.7% and the employment change against September’s -39,300.

The Split

Bullish AUD: Employment rebounds and unemployment at 4.6% or lower. It would reduce the weight of the hold camp’s argument.

Bearish AUD: Unemployment at 4.8% or higher. It would strengthen the argument of the three members who voted to hold.

US initial jobless claims also release at 1:30 PM GMT on Thursday, with an Impact rating of MEDIUM. The last reading was 200,000 and the four-week average was 195,250.

The Call

The December rate debate is now about size. The major releases remaining before the 9 December vote include October PPI on Friday 13 November, October retail sales on 17 November, October PCE on 25 November and November NFP on 4 December. November CPI is scheduled for 10 December, the day after the decision. Within the US calendar next week, retail sales, the FOMC minutes and Fed speeches are the main new inputs.

The dollar is a common factor in recent currency moves. Sterling weakened on Thursday despite a strong UK GDP print as US hike bets supported the dollar, and AUD/USD fell about 1% to near 0.693. Both the BoE and the RBA hiked recently, and next week’s UK CPI and Australian jobs data bear on how much further each is priced to go.

Higher yields matter for equities. Schwab noted that the jump in yields is not necessarily good news for corporate profit margins, and the 10-year is near 5.08%. Nvidia’s results land in the same week as the FOMC minutes, so rates and AI-sector sentiment are both in play.

Levels on Thursday 12 November: 10-year Treasury yield near 5.08%, Dollar Index near 102.9, GBP/USD near 1.323 at the London close, AUD/USD near 0.693.

After this week: October PCE and the Q3 GDP second estimate on Wednesday 25 November, November NFP on Friday 4 December, the FOMC decision on Wednesday 9 December, November CPI on Thursday 10 December, and the BoE on Thursday 17 December.

Calendar

Date	Event	CCY	Time GMT	Impact
Fri 13 Nov	Producer Price Index (Oct)	USD	1:30 PM	HIGH
Tue 17 Nov	RBA Minutes (3 Nov meeting)	AUD	12:30 AM	MEDIUM
Tue 17 Nov	UK Labour Market Data	GBP	7:00 AM	MEDIUM
Tue 17 Nov	US Retail Sales (Oct)	USD	1:30 PM	HIGH
Tue 17 Nov	Nvidia Earnings (after US close)	USD	9:20 PM	EVENT RISK
Wed 18 Nov	UK Consumer Price Index (Oct)	GBP	7:00 AM	CRITICAL
Wed 18 Nov	FOMC Minutes (27–28 Oct meeting)	USD	7:00 PM	HIGH
Thu 19 Nov	Australia Labour Force (Oct)	AUD	12:30 AM	HIGH
Thu 19 Nov	Initial Jobless Claims	USD	1:30 PM	MEDIUM

Upcoming releases after this week:

• Wed 25 Nov: October PCE and Q3 GDP second estimate
• Fri 4 Dec: November NFP
• Wed 9 Dec: FOMC rate decision
• Thu 10 Dec: November CPI
• Thu 17 Dec: BoE rate decision

Risk Notice

Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before trading around these releases. Wednesday carries UK CPI in the morning and FOMC minutes in the evening, and Nvidia’s results arrive after Tuesday’s US close. Each carries the potential for fast, multi-directional price action. US releases arrive at 1:30 PM GMT, so check release times against your platform clock. For more on managing volatility as a funded trader, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.