The FXIFY Trading Desk Brief: Week of 2 November 2026

Situation Report

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday 28 October in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a 25 basis point hike. Thursday’s data showed stronger growth than expected, with Q3 GDP at 3.4% annualised against 3.2% expected, and September Core PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. CME FedWatch put the probability of a December hike at 82.6% after the decision, up from 78.3% the day before.

This week the focus moves away from the Fed. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday and the Bank of England decides on Thursday, and markets price a hike at both: roughly 80% to 85% for the RBA, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, and about 94% for the BoE, which would take Bank Rate to 4.00%. October NFP lands on Friday and is the first US labour market reading since the Fed’s decision. The US midterm elections are on Tuesday.

One timing change affects every US release this week. US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November, so from Monday US data lands one hour later in GMT. NFP is at 1:30 PM GMT, not 12:30 PM GMT as in recent months. All times in this brief are GMT.

Last Week in Review

Fed: hold, 10-2, two dissents for a hike

The FOMC kept the target range at 3.75%–4.00%. The statement described economic activity as expanding at a “strong” pace, up from “solid” in September, and repeated that inflation remains elevated. Hammack, who also dissented in favour of a hike in July, dissented again. Cook’s dissent was described by CNBC as one of the surprises of the meeting. Kashkari and Logan, who dissented in July, did not dissent this time.

At the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said politics played “no role” in the decision. He also announced a change to the meeting schedule. The FOMC will still hold eight meetings in 2027, but one will focus on strategy, with no rate vote and no policy statement. That leaves seven scheduled rate decisions next year.

Q3 GDP and September Core PCE

The BEA reported on Thursday that real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in Q3, up from 2.2% in Q2. The BEA listed investment, consumer spending, and government spending as contributors, partly offset by lower exports. The Q3 PCE price index rose 2.1% annualised, compared with 5.0% in Q2.

September Core PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, up from 3.0% in August and 1.1 percentage points above the Fed’s 2% target. Headline PCE rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% year-on-year, up from 3.4%. Real consumer spending was essentially flat in September, up less than 0.1% after a 0.6% gain in August. The second estimate of Q3 GDP is due on 25 November.

Australia: September CPI at 4.3%, core above the RBA’s forecast

Monthly CPI rose 4.3% year-on-year in September, above the 4.2% forecast and up from 4.0% in August. The quarterly trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred core measure, rose 1.0% in Q3 and 3.7% year-on-year, against 3.6% expected. The RBA’s own August forecast for the quarter was 0.8%. Headline CPI rose 1.3% in the quarter. Unemployment reached 4.7% in September, a five-year high, as employment fell by 39,300. Trend unemployment held at 4.6%, and the ABS has flagged that survey changes may affect the monthly figures.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on 21 October that the inflation outlook looked “materially worse” than the Bank projected in August. After the CPI release, cash rate futures moved the probability of a 3 November hike from about 60% to about 85%, per Brown Brothers Harriman.

UK: September CPI at 3.5%

The ONS reported that CPI rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, above the 3.4% forecast. Core CPI rose to 2.8% from 2.6%, and services inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%. Petrol and diesel made the largest upward contributions. At its 17 September meeting the MPC voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members voting for a hike to 4.00%. The Bank projected CPI at around 3.75% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027.

This Week’s Events

Monday 2 November: ISM Manufacturing PMI, October (USD) | 3:00 PM GMT | Impact: HIGH

The Setup

September’s ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.5, the ninth consecutive month above 50. New Orders were 55.3 and Employment was 52.7. The Prices Paid index reached 77.9, its highest reading since the start of the Iran conflict. The consensus for October, per Trading Economics, is a PMI of 54.7 and Prices Paid at 78.

This is the first US activity data after the Fed described activity as expanding at a “strong” pace. The ISM Services Prices Paid index also reached 74.0 in September, its highest since 2022, so Monday’s reading will show whether price pressure in manufacturing is holding at the same level.

The Key Number

Prices Paid. A reading at or above 78 extends the upstream price pressure from September. A clear drop would be a notable easing.

The Split

Bullish USD: PMI above 54.7 with Prices Paid at or above 78. December hike pricing holds or rises.

Bearish USD: PMI materially below 54.7 with Prices Paid easing. The case for a December hike weakens.

Tuesday 3 November: RBA Rate Decision (AUD) | 3:30 AM GMT | Impact: CRITICAL

The Setup

The RBA decides at 2:30 PM AEDT, which is 3:30 AM GMT and before European markets open. The cash rate is 4.60% after the fourth hike of 2026 on 29 September, a unanimous decision. Following the September CPI release, all four major Australian banks expect a hike to 4.85%, and futures price it at roughly 80% to 85%. BBH also noted that futures raised bets on another hike in Q1.

The case against is the labour market. Unemployment is 4.7%, a five-year high, although trend unemployment is 4.6%. Before the CPI release, CBA had described the decision as finely balanced and cited a weaker labour market and subdued consumption.

The Key Number

The vote and the guidance. With a hike largely priced, the information is whether the Board presents the move as the last one or leaves room for more.

The Split

Bullish AUD: Hike to 4.85% with guidance that further tightening remains possible. Q1 hike pricing firms.

Bearish AUD: Hold, which is roughly a 15% to 20% outcome. The priced hike is removed and AUD would likely fall.

Mixed AUD: Hike with language pointing to a pause. AUD may soften as pricing for further tightening eases.

Tuesday 3 November: US Midterm Elections and JOLTS (USD) | JOLTS 3:00 PM GMT | Impact: MEDIUM

The Setup

JOLTS job openings for September release at 10:00 AM ET. August openings were 7.079 million, down from a revised 7.335 million in July, per BLS.

The midterm elections add no scheduled economic data. Polls close across US time zones from Tuesday evening, so results arrive overnight into Wednesday in GMT. Warsh said politics played “no role” in the Fed’s October decision, and the next FOMC decision is on 9 December. The election is a source of headline and liquidity risk around Tuesday’s RBA decision and Wednesday’s open.

The Key Number

JOLTS at or above 7.1 million keeps labour demand near August’s level. A reading well below it would add to the softer labour signals from September’s NFP.

Wednesday 4 November: ADP and ISM Services PMI, October (USD) | ADP 1:15 PM GMT, ISM 3:00 PM GMT | Impact: HIGH

The Setup

September’s ISM Services PMI was 54.9, down from 55.4 in August and slightly below the 55.1 forecast, the 27th consecutive month of expansion. New Orders were 59.8 and Business Activity fell to 56.5 from 61.7. Employment returned to expansion at 50.1 from 47.8. Prices Paid rose to 74.0 from 72.6.

ADP’s October private payroll estimate is the first labour reading of the week. ADP does not always track the BLS figure closely, but a large miss in either direction will influence positioning ahead of Friday. The US Treasury also publishes its Quarterly Refunding Announcement on Wednesday.

The Key Number

ISM Services Employment, which crossed back above 50 for one month, and Prices Paid at 74.0.

The Split

Bullish USD: PMI above 55 with Prices Paid holding near 74 and Employment above 50. Supports the December case.

Bearish USD: Employment back below 50 with Prices Paid easing. Adds to the softer labour signals.

Thursday 5 November: Bank of England Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report (GBP) | 12:00 PM GMT | Impact: CRITICAL

The Setup

Bank Rate has been 3.75% since 18 December 2025. Overnight index swap pricing as of 28 October implied a 94% probability of a 25 basis point hike to 4.00%, and Polymarket showed a similar level. Three MPC members already voted for a hike on 17 September. September CPI at 3.5%, core at 2.8%, and services at 3.7% all rose from August.

The decision publishes with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report and updated projections. In September the MPC projected CPI at around 3.75% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027.

The Key Number

The vote split. A unanimous hike would be a firmer signal than a 6-3 or 5-4 hike. The new CPI projections for early 2027 are the second signal.

The Split

Bullish GBP: Hike to 4.00% with a lopsided or unanimous vote and projections showing inflation above 4%.

Mixed GBP: Hike with several members voting to hold, or guidance that the Bank sees the move as sufficient.

Bearish GBP: Hold. This is roughly a 6% outcome and would remove a hike that is almost fully priced.

Friday 6 November: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, October (USD) | 1:30 PM GMT | Impact: CRITICAL

The Setup

September NFP was +29,000 against consensus estimates of 84,000 to 90,000. August was revised to +133,000 from +162,000, and the 12-month average gain is 45,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose 3.0% year-on-year. The report also revises August and September.

No firm consensus for October had been published at the time of writing. Published estimates range from a Trading Economics forecast of 40,000 to a prediction-market-implied range of 70,000–80,000.

The Fed meets again on 9 December. This report is the labour half of the picture, following Thursday’s 3.4% GDP and 3.1% Core PCE.

The Key Number

The payroll headline against the 40,000–80,000 range, and the unemployment rate against 4.2%.

The Split

Bullish USD: Payrolls above 100,000 with unemployment at or below 4.2%. December hike pricing rises from 82.6%.

Bearish USD: Payrolls near zero or negative, or large downward revisions. The case for a December hike weakens.

The Call

Three central banks are priced for different outcomes this week. The Fed is on hold with a December hike at 82.6%. The RBA is priced to hike at roughly 80% to 85%. The BoE is priced to hike at about 94%. Because a hike is heavily priced at both the RBA and the BoE, a hold from either would be the larger surprise. The information in a priced hike is the vote split and the guidance.

There is a common thread across the three economies. UK core CPI rose to 2.8% from 2.6% in September. Australia’s quarterly trimmed mean rose to 3.7% from 3.6%. US core PCE came in at 3.1%, 1.1 points above target. Each is a core measure that excludes the largest price swings.

For the Fed, nothing scheduled this week changes the vote, since the next decision is on 9 December. NFP on Friday is the main US catalyst. With a December hike already at 82.6%, there is more room for a weak print to lower that probability than for a strong print to raise it.

The midterm elections add headline and liquidity risk around Tuesday’s RBA decision and Wednesday’s open, without adding scheduled data.

Two timing points. The RBA decision lands at 3:30 AM GMT, before European markets open. The BoE publishes the decision, vote split, and Monetary Policy Report together at 12:00 PM GMT, so the vote and the projections reach the market at the same moment.

After this week, October CPI is scheduled for Tuesday 10 November. BLS has said it will omit 12-month changes for some indexes in that release, because no October 2025 prices were collected during last year’s shutdown. Year-on-year comparisons for those indexes will not be available.

Calendar

Date	Event	CCY	Time GMT	Impact
Mon 2 Nov	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	USD	3:00 PM	HIGH
Tue 3 Nov	RBA Rate Decision	AUD	3:30 AM	CRITICAL
Tue 3 Nov	US Midterm Elections	USD	All day	EVENT RISK
Tue 3 Nov	JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)	USD	3:00 PM	MEDIUM
Wed 4 Nov	ADP Employment Report (Oct)	USD	1:15 PM	MEDIUM
Wed 4 Nov	ISM Services PMI (Oct)	USD	3:00 PM	HIGH
Thu 5 Nov	BoE Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report	GBP	12:00 PM	CRITICAL
Fri 6 Nov	Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct)	USD	1:30 PM	CRITICAL
Fri 6 Nov	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	USD	1:30 PM	CRITICAL
Fri 6 Nov	Average Hourly Earnings (Oct)	USD	1:30 PM	HIGH

Upcoming releases after this week:

• Tue 10 Nov: October CPI
• Wed 25 Nov: Q3 GDP second estimate
• Wed 9 Dec: FOMC rate decision

Risk Notice

Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before trading around this week’s releases. Tuesday’s RBA decision, Thursday’s BoE decision, and Friday’s NFP each carry the potential for fast, multi-directional price action. US releases arrive one hour later in GMT than in recent weeks, so check release times against your platform clock. For more on managing volatility as a funded trader, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.