Weekly Market Preview: What’s Moving the Markets This Week (29 Jun – 3 Jul)

This week brings a high volume of market-moving data across CAD and USD. From Canadian GDP to the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday, this week’s data will set the tone for USD direction heading into Q3.

Volatility may be elevated heading into the US holiday period, with lower trading volume likely amplifying price moves around Thursday’s releases.

Here’s the full breakdown.

Monday, 30 June — Canada GDP (CAD) | 12:30 PM GMT

This is the final economic report card for Canada this quarter. It tells traders whether the economy is growing or stalling — and right now, that question matters more than usual.

Canada’s Q1 2026 real GDP contracted at just 0.1% annualized, following a revised 1.0% annualized contraction in Q4 2025. That is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth — the first time Canada has recorded back-to-back contractions since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The Bank of Canada has held rates at 2.25% through four consecutive meetings, choosing to treat the energy price spike as temporary rather than tighten into a weakening economy.

The flash estimate for April GDP came in at +0.4% month-over-month, the strongest reading since January 2025, suggesting some recovery after March’s 0.1% decline. Today’s official release confirms or revises that flash estimate and includes the first look at May GDP. Since the Bank of Canada is watching closely for signs of economic stress, a weak number here could weigh on CAD.

What traders are watching:

Higher than expected — Bullish CAD. Shows the Canadian economy is holding up. Reduces the case for any near-term easing from the BoC.

Lower than expected — Bearish CAD. Confirms a slowdown, putting pressure on the Loonie and strengthening the case for a BoC cut.

Monday, 30 June — JOLTS Job Openings (USD) | 2:00 PM GMT

This report shows how many unfilled jobs are currently available in the US economy. It is a leading indicator for Thursday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. If job openings drop, it signals the labour market is cooling. If they stay high, pressure builds on the Fed to hold rates.

April JOLTS came in at 7.618 million job openings, the highest since November 2024 and well above market expectations of 6.88 million. The forecast for today’s May release is 7.28 million. A reading near or above that level keeps the strong labour market story intact heading into Thursday.

What traders are watching:

Higher than expected — Bullish USD. The job market is still running hot, suggesting interest rates will stay high.

Lower than expected — Bearish USD. A sign that hiring is slowing, which increases expectations for rate cuts.

Tuesday, 1 July — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD) | 12:15 PM GMT

ADP releases its private sector jobs estimate for June ahead of the official government data on Thursday. This is not always an accurate preview of the official number, but a significant miss in either direction will move the Dollar.

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above forecasts of 85,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. ADP will provide the first directional signal on whether that momentum has continued into June or the labor market is beginning to soften.

What traders are watching:

Higher than expected — Bullish USD. Builds confidence ahead of Thursday’s NFP, supporting the Dollar.

Lower than expected — Bearish USD. Raises the possibility that the official NFP print will disappoint, potentially weighing on the Dollar ahead of the release.

Tuesday, 1 July — ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) | 2:00 PM GMT

This is the first major data point of the new month and new quarter. It measures the health of US factories and sets the tone for the Dollar heading into the rest of the week.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in May, its highest reading since May 2022, pointing to the strongest expansion in the factory sector in four years. New orders came in at 56.8 and production at 54.3. May marked the fifth consecutive month of expansion. The 50-point mark is the key level — anything above it signals the sector is growing, anything below it signals contraction.

What traders are watching:

Above 50.0 — Bullish USD. The industrial sector is expanding, which reduces pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

Below 50.0 — Bearish USD. A sign that activity in the manufacturing sector is slowing, which increases the case for rate cuts.

Thursday, 2 July — Non-Farm Employment Change + Unemployment Rate (USD) | 12:30 PM GMT

The most closely watched data release in forex trading. This report shows exactly how many jobs were added to the US economy in June. Because this falls right before the 4 July US holiday, price moves may be amplified given lower trading volume around the release.

May NFP came in at 172,000, well above the consensus estimate of 80,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month. Capital Economics is forecasting a smaller gain of 130,000 for June, expecting the boost from state and local government hiring to fade.

What traders are watching:

High jobs / low unemployment — Bullish USD. A resilient labour market reduces expectations for near-term rate cuts. The Dollar strengthens across major pairs.

Low jobs / high unemployment — Bearish USD. Signals potential weakness in the US economy and may increase expectations for a rate cut. The Dollar weakens as rate-cut expectations build.

Calendar Snapshot

Date	Event	Currency	Time (GMT)
Mon 30 Jun	GDP	CAD	12:30 PM
Mon 30 Jun	JOLTS Job Openings	USD	2:00 PM
Tue 1 Jul	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	12:15 PM
Tue 1 Jul	ISM Manufacturing PMI	USD	2:00 PM
Thu 2 Jul	Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	12:30 PM
Thu 2 Jul	Unemployment Rate	USD	12:30 PM

A Quick Note on Risk

Economic data releases can cause sharp, fast moves in the market. Price can spike in both directions before settling. Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before you trade around major news events. For more on how funded traders approach volatile sessions, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.