The FXIFY Trading Desk Brief: Week of 21 September 2026

Situation Report

Wednesday’s FOMC decision marked the first rate increase since July 2023. The Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, the first unanimous hawkish action since Warsh took the chair in May.

The vote alone was not the market-moving event. The dot plot and Warsh’s press conference tone were. Sixteen of 18 participating members projected at least one additional hike before year-end. Twelve saw one more. Four saw two. Only two members expected the committee to stop here. Warsh declined to submit his own dot for the second consecutive SEP meeting, saying “I’m not in the forward guidance business.” But his press conference language was unambiguous: “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2% goal. This Committee will deliver price stability.”

The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 5% following his remarks, the market’s signal that it is not treating this as a one-and-done move. CME FedWatch priced a 49% chance of an October hike and 87% probability of at least one more hike before year-end after the press conference, up from 40% and 77% respectively going into the meeting.

This week has no FOMC, no CPI, and no NFP. The calendar is light by comparison. But the market is digesting the first rate hike in three years and secondary data, including housing, jobless claims, and leading indicators, will each be read through the lens of what Wednesday’s unanimous hike signals about the economy’s capacity to absorb further tightening.

What the Hike Means Going Forward

The dot plot is the story

The dot plot shifted materially between the June and September meetings. At the June meeting, nine members projected at least one hike in 2026, eight projected no change, and one projected a cut. At Wednesday’s September meeting, all 18 participating members projected the rate above its pre-hike level by year-end. The median year-end projection is now 4.125%, implying one more 25 basis point hike. Four members see two more, implying a year-end rate of 4.25–4.50%. Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Kay Haigh said after the decision that the Fed will likely skip October given the midterm elections and is now pencilling in one more hike in December. JPMorgan Asset Management’s Jordan Jackson said the unanimous vote and the “timelier return to 2%” language signal that the committee is ready to act further if data warrants.

The October meeting is live but uncertain

The next FOMC meeting is 28–29 October, eight days before the US midterm elections on 4 November. The Fed has historically avoided making major policy changes in the week before an election. Goldman Sachs explicitly flagged this as its reason for expecting a skip. But with four members already projecting two more hikes this year and a September hike just delivered, October cannot be dismissed. CME FedWatch pricing a 49% probability of an October hike reflects genuine uncertainty, not a settled expectation.

What Would Pause the Hiking Cycle

Warsh said at the press conference that decisions will not hinge on individual data points and that the committee is “committed to a discipline, not to a decision.” But three data readings between now and the October 29 meeting are relevant: September NFP on 3 October, September CPI on 14 October, and Core PCE on 30 October, which lands the day after the meeting. The September CPI and NFP are the two prints that will do the most work in resolving October’s 49/51 split.

This Week’s Events

The week of 21 September is a secondary data week. No tier-one releases. Each reading this week will be assessed against the question of whether the economy is holding up under 3.75–4.00% rates.

Tuesday, 23 September — Housing Starts and Building Permits (USD) | 12:30 PM GMT

August housing starts and building permits released at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday.

Housing has been one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy throughout this cycle. July housing starts fell to 1.238 million annualised, the lowest reading since April 2024, down 6.8% from June. Building permits, a forward indicator of construction activity, also declined. With the Fed now at 3.75%–4.00% and signalling further hikes, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to move above 7.5% in the coming days per the Freddie Mac weekly survey.

A further decline in starts would add to the evidence that residential investment is contracting under rate pressure. A rebound would suggest the housing market is more resilient than the July data implied.

What traders are watching:

Soft data: Adds to the narrative that tighter policy is biting into the most rate-sensitive sector. May ease October hike expectations marginally.

Strong data: Signals the economy is absorbing the current rate level without major housing damage. Keeps October live.

Thursday, 25 September — Jobless Claims (USD) | 12:30 PM GMT

Weekly initial jobless claims released at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. The four-week moving average entering this week is 210,250, stable but slightly elevated compared to the sub-200,000 readings that characterised the first half of 2026.

Jobless claims are the timeliest available labour market indicator between monthly NFP reports. Following August’s strong NFP beat of 162,000, the labour market appeared resilient. However, September NFP on 3 October is the next definitive reading. Claims data this week will either reinforce that resilience or introduce the first doubt.

What traders are watching:

Below 210,000: Labour market holding firm. No material change to October or December hike expectations.

Above 230,000: A notable deterioration that would raise questions about whether September NFP could disappoint. Eases near-term hike expectations.

Friday, 26 September — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (USD) | 2:00 PM GMT

The final September consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan releases at 10:00 AM ET Friday. The preliminary September reading came in at 65.1, up from August’s final reading of 51.0, a 14.1 point gain.

The jump was driven by a sharp decline in short-term inflation expectations, which fell from 4.3% in August to 3.8% in September. Long-term inflation expectations held at 3.3%. The improvement in the preliminary reading coincided with a partial reversal in gasoline prices and some stabilisation in food prices following the US-Iran ceasefire earlier in the summer.

The final reading rarely deviates significantly from the preliminary. If it does, it is more likely to move lower. The September 16 rate hike and the move in the 10-year yield above 5% occurred after the preliminary survey’s field period closed. Any September final reading that shows deterioration from the preliminary would suggest the rate hike has begun to weigh on household confidence.

What traders are watching:

Final above 65.1: Confidence holding. Consistent with an economy that can absorb further tightening.

Final below 60.0: Signals the post-hike market reaction may already be affecting consumer psychology. Adds a dovish data point ahead of October.

The Call

This is a week for positioning, not for reacting to tier-one data. The market absorbed a unanimous Fed hike on Wednesday and a dot plot that pointed firmly toward December. The 10-year Treasury yield holding above 5% is the key level to watch this week. It is the rate at which the real economy feels tighter policy most directly, through mortgages, corporate borrowing costs, and equity valuations.

Three things traders should be tracking this week that are not on the calendar.

First, Fed speakers. Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak this week in the days following the decision. Waller, Hammack, and Kashkari are all expected to make public remarks. Given the unanimous vote and the hawkish dot plot, any softening commentary from Waller, who publicly argued for a hold as recently as 3 September, would be significant. Watch for Waller specifically. His 3 September dovish remarks moved September hike probability by 15 percentage points in a single session.

Second, the 10-year Treasury yield. If it holds above 5% through the week, it signals the bond market is fully repricing for a December hike. If it pulls back below 4.90%, it suggests some of Wednesday’s hawkish pricing is being unwound. That threshold matters for equities, housing, and USD pairs.

Third, October FOMC pricing. The CME FedWatch October probability settled at 49% after Wednesday’s press conference. Any move above 55% during this week, without a tier-one data catalyst, would represent the market independently reaching a hawkish conclusion based on the post-hike tone. That is a signal worth noting.

The next tier-one release is September NFP on 3 October.

Calendar

Date	Event	CCY	Time GMT	Impact
Tue 23 Sep	Housing Starts and Building Permits	USD	12:30 PM	MEDIUM
Thu 25 Sep	Initial Jobless Claims	USD	12:30 PM	MEDIUM
Fri 26 Sep	UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final)	USD	2:00 PM	LOW-MEDIUM

Upcoming tier-one releases:

• Thu 2 Oct: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Fri 3 Oct: September NFP and Unemployment Rate
• Tue 14 Oct: September CPI
• Fri 26 Oct: September Core PCE

Risk Notice

Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before trading around this week’s releases. While the scheduled data is second-tier, Fed speaker commentary and movements in the 10-year Treasury yield have the potential to generate sharp moves in USD pairs, bonds, and rate-sensitive equities. For more on managing volatility as a funded trader, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.