Weekly Market Preview: What’s Moving the Markets This Week (24–28 August)

Two major data releases land on Tuesday before the week’s defining event: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday, his first set-piece speech since taking office in May and the final major signal before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

Here is what happened last week and what traders need to watch this week.

What Happened Last Week

FOMC Minutes: hawkish concerns extended beyond the three dissenters

The Federal Reserve published the minutes of its July 28–29 meeting on Wednesday at 6:00 PM GMT. The release showed that concerns about persistent inflation extended beyond the three officials who formally dissented, consistent with what analysts had flagged as the key risk ahead of publication.

The minutes showed that several participants beyond Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan expressed concern that inflation was not declining fast enough and that the current rate level may be insufficient to return price stability within a reasonable timeframe. The language on labour market conditions was notably divided, with some participants describing conditions as still solid while others flagged signs of softening that warranted careful monitoring. The committee broadly agreed to remain data-dependent before the September meeting, with Warsh’s aversion to forward guidance reinforced throughout.

The Dollar index edged higher immediately after the release before paring gains as traders weighed the hawkish minutes against the softer data received since the July 29 meeting. As of 20 August, CME FedWatch prices a 68.4% probability of a September hold, equivalent to a 31.6% probability of a hike, down from 82% immediately after the July 29 decision.

Traders focused on the conditional language in the minutes, the circumstances under which the committee indicated it would be prepared to move, and applied them to the data released since July 29. That assessment now happens at Jackson Hole on Friday.

This Week’s Events

Tuesday, 26 August — Core PCE Price Index (USD) | 12:30 PM GMT

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure releases at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, alongside the BEA’s second estimate of Q2 GDP. Core PCE is the final major inflation print the FOMC will see before Warsh speaks on Friday.

Core PCE strips out food and energy to show the underlying trend in consumer prices. June Core PCE came in at 3.3% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in May, continuing a gradual cooling trend. For July, the Cleveland Fed nowcast is tracking Core PCE at approximately 3.29% year-on-year. However, there is a significant upside risk embedded in Tuesday’s number that markets have not fully priced. The core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services, a measure that feeds directly into PCE calculations, surged 0.4% in July, four times June’s pace, driven by a 6.5% spike in portfolio management fees. This component typically flows through to Core PCE with a short lag and could push the July reading above the 3.29% nowcast.

A reading at or above 3.3% would give officials who favour further tightening additional support for their case ahead of Warsh’s Friday speech. If it comes in below 3.2%, it strengthens the case for a September hold.

What traders are watching:

Higher than expected — Bullish USD. Inflation re-accelerating above the recent trend reinforces the case for a September hike. September hike probability climbs above 65%. Dollar strengthens.

Lower than expected — Bearish USD. Confirms the disinflation trend is still intact. September hold expectations build. Dollar weakens ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote.

Tuesday, 26 August — Q2 GDP Second Estimate (USD) | 12:30 PM GMT

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its second estimate of second-quarter 2026 real GDP growth at the same time as Core PCE, also at 8:30 AM ET.

The advance estimate published July 30 showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.5% in Q2, a slowdown from the 2.1% annualised growth recorded in Q1. The deceleration reflected softer consumer spending growth of 1.8%, down from 3.4% in Q1, alongside weaker residential investment and a drag from net exports. Government spending contributed positively.

The second estimate incorporates additional source data. Second estimates have historically remained close to the advance reading, though revisions of 0.5 percentage points or more have occurred in volatile quarters. However, any downward revision toward or below 1.0% annualised would add to the slowdown narrative and weigh on September hike expectations. An upward revision above 2.0% would provide support to the argument that the economy can absorb further tightening.

What traders are watching:

Upward revision — Bullish USD. Suggests the economy is more resilient than the advance estimate indicated. Reduces concern about overtightening.

Downward revision — Bearish USD. Adds to the soft data narrative and reduces the urgency of a September hike.

Friday, 28 August — Jackson Hole: Warsh Keynote Address (USD) | Time Tentative GMT

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium from 27 to 29 August at Jackson Lake Lodge, Wyoming. The official theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” The keynote that matters to markets is delivered on Friday morning by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, his first Jackson Hole address since taking office on 22 May 2026.

Three factors make this address carry more weight than a typical Jackson Hole speech.

First, information value. Warsh has stripped forward guidance from the Fed’s communications, shortened the post-meeting statement, and given deliberately vague answers at his two press conferences so far. A set-piece speech from this chair carries information that equivalent remarks under his predecessor would not. When Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, markets will be listening to an extended, prepared framework statement, the first of its kind from this chair.

Second, timing. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting is 18 days after the keynote. The committee will also receive the August CPI and NFP data before that meeting, but Jackson Hole is the last chance Warsh has to shape market expectations before those prints land.

Third, the internal division the minutes revealed. With several participants beyond the three formal dissenters showing concern about inflation, and September hold probability now at 68.4% per CME FedWatch, markets have shifted significantly toward expecting no change in September. Warsh told reporters after the July 29 meeting that his Jackson Hole remarks will aim to frame big-picture questions rather than offer near-term guidance. If he holds to that, September will remain genuinely uncertain. Any departure from that framing in either direction is likely to move rate expectations significantly.

BMO Capital Markets head of US rates Ian Lyngen noted following the July 29 decision that the committee appears to be a group with vocal hawks but with a majority waiting for August employment and inflation data before committing to September. Jackson Hole is where that waiting posture either continues or ends.

What traders are watching:

Hawkish framework — Bullish USD. If Warsh signals that the hiking cycle is not over and that inflation above 3% for five-plus years cannot be cured by a single month of soft data, hike expectations rebuild sharply. Dollar strengthens.

Neutral or dovish framing — Bearish USD. If Warsh frames the recent soft data as meaningful progress and avoids hawkish triggers, September hold expectations increase. Dollar weakens as rate hike expectations ease and risk assets may respond positively.

Calendar Snapshot

Date	Event	Currency	Time (GMT)
Tue 26 Aug	Core PCE Price Index	USD	12:30 PM
Tue 26 Aug	Q2 GDP Second Estimate	USD	12:30 PM
Fri 28 Aug	Jackson Hole: Warsh Keynote	USD	TBC

A Quick Note on Risk

Economic data releases and central bank speeches can cause sharp, fast market moves. Prices can spike in both directions before settling. This week carries two distinct risk windows: Tuesday morning at 12:30 PM GMT when Core PCE and GDP land simultaneously, and Friday when Warsh speaks. Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before you trade around major news events. For more on how funded traders approach volatile sessions, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.