Weekly Market Preview:what’s moving the market this week (27-31 July)
Six high-impact releases land across five currencies this week. Three of the world’s most powerful central banks, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England,…
Six high-impact releases land across five currencies this week. Three of the world’s most powerful central banks, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, deliver rate decisions across three consecutive days. Australia’s quarterly inflation print and Canada’s GDP bookend the week on Tuesday and Thursday. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE, lands on Wednesday alongside the Bank of England.
Tuesday through Thursday carry the heaviest concentration of releases this week.
Here is the full breakdown.
Tuesday, 29 July — Australia Consumer Price Index (AUD) | 1:30 AM GMT
Australia’s quarterly CPI report card. Unlike most major economies that publish monthly inflation data, Australia’s quarterly release carries substantial weight. It is the single data point the RBA relies on most when deciding whether to hike or hold at its next meeting.
The monthly CPI read for May came in at 4.0% year-on-year, down from 4.2% in April, below expectations of 4.4% but still well above the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred core measure, rose to 3.6% in May, the highest reading since September 2024 and above expectations. The RBA has delivered three rate hikes this year, bringing the cash rate to 4.35%, and Governor Michele Bullock has stated the Bank expects underlying inflation to remain above 3% until late 2027.
For the June quarter, CBA is forecasting quarterly trimmed mean inflation of 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, with the annual rate edging higher to 3.7%. The RBA’s own May Statement on Monetary Policy projected headline inflation peaking at 4.8% in the June quarter. Consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.7% in July from 5.5% in June, suggesting households see some relief ahead, but expectations remain elevated. Two key questions for the RBA: whether the trimmed mean has exceeded the 3.7% threshold that would make an August hike difficult to avoid, and whether the fuel excise cut from April is showing through in the quarterly data.
What traders are watching:
Higher than expected — Bullish AUD. Inflation proving too stubborn sparks expectations for an RBA rate hike. AUD strengthens.
Lower than expected — Bearish AUD. Signals the economy is cooling. Opens the door for a pause or eventual rate relief. AUD weakens.
Tuesday, 29 July — FOMC Rate Statement (USD) | 6:00 PM GMT
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Economists polled by FactSet expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change. CME FedWatch currently prices a 65.3% probability of no change in July, with expectations for a September hike climbing to 82%. This is a non-SEP meeting, meaning no updated dot plot or economic projections will be released. The entire signal comes from the statement language and Warsh’s press conference.
Context from the June meeting minutes is relevant here. The FOMC voted 12-0 to hold in June and the minutes showed the median path implied no change through the start of 2027, with one rate cut expected in Q2 2027. However, June CPI came in at 3.5% year-on-year, below the 3.8% consensus forecast, which pulled short-term rate hike expectations lower ahead of this meeting. Truflation forecasts core PCE at 3.3% year-on-year for June, the same as May’s reading. The 2-year Treasury yield at 4.13% sits above the top of the current 3.75% target range, reflecting market positioning for eventual tightening.
Warsh has signalled he will provide less forward guidance than previous Fed chairs. That means the statement itself and any deviation from the June language will carry more weight than usual.
What traders are watching:
Hawkish hold / stiff guidance — Bullish USD. Dollar strengthens across major pairs. Rate hike expectations for September build further.
Dovish language / signal to cut — Bearish USD. Dollar weakens. Rate cut expectations build and risk assets respond positively.
Wednesday, 30 July — Bank of England Official Bank Rate and Policy Summary (GBP) | 11:00 AM GMT
The main event for the British Pound this week. The Bank of England announces its decision at 12:00 PM UK time alongside a new Monetary Policy Report and the full minutes of the meeting.
The BoE held rates at 3.75% at its June meeting with the MPC voting 7-2 to maintain. Chief Economist Huw Pill and external member Megan Greene voted for a hike to 4.00%. Pill told the BBC on 9 July that he believes rates will need to increase this year. The hawkish minority has grown from one dissent in April to two in June. Market pricing as of 22 July implies an 86% probability of no change at July’s meeting and 14% probability of a hike to 4.00%.
The MPC had the June CPI reading, released by the ONS on 22 July, as its final major inflation data point ahead of this decision. UK June CPI came in at 2.6% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in May, as falling fuel prices pulled the headline lower. Core CPI held at 2.6% and services inflation eased slightly from 3.7% to 3.6%, the measure the MPC watches most closely. The US-Iran peace deal has eased some near-term energy price pressure, which HomeOwners Alliance notes has shifted some market expectations of imminent rate hikes. However, the Ofgem energy price cap increased by 13.5% in July, which the BoE projected would push CPI to just under 3% in Q3 and just over 3.25% in Q4. The MPC’s vote split and the Monetary Policy Report’s updated growth and inflation forecasts will be the primary market-moving signals.
What traders are watching:
Hawkish hold / rate hike — Bullish GBP. If the Bank signals it remains aggressive on inflation, or hikes to 4.00%, the Pound strengthens.
Dovish hold / rate cut — Bearish GBP. If the committee signals growing concern over economic weakness, the Pound weakens.
Wednesday, 30 July — Core PCE Price Index (USD) | 12:30 PM GMT
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure lands just hours after the FOMC statement. This creates a rare double event on Wednesday for USD pairs.
Core PCE strips out food and energy to show the underlying trend in consumer prices. The Fed targets Core PCE at 2% over the medium term. May Core PCE came in at 3.4% year-on-year, confirmed from the BEA’s June 25 release. For the June reading, Truflation forecasts Core PCE rising 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Headline PCE is forecast to hold flat month-on-month with the annual rate cooling slightly to 3.7%. June CPI came in at 3.5% year-on-year, softer than the 3.8% consensus, which typically pulls PCE in a similar direction, though the two measures do not always move in lockstep.
Coming within hours of the FOMC statement, this data will either reinforce or immediately challenge whatever signal Warsh delivered in the press conference. A softer than expected read would be consistent with any dovish language from the Fed. A hotter than expected read would strengthen the hawkish case for a September hike.
What traders are watching:
Higher than expected — Bullish USD. Confirms inflation is still not cooling fast enough. Builds the case for a rate hike later this year.
Lower than expected — Bearish USD. Raises expectations that the Fed can remain on hold or consider cuts in 2027 earlier than projected.
Thursday, 31 July — BOJ Policy Rate and Press Conference (JPY) | Tentative GMT
The market’s most unpredictable event this week. The Bank of Japan delivers its policy decision on Thursday, with the announcement time listed as tentative pending confirmation from the BOJ.
The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% at its June meeting, its first hike since 2023 and a three-decade high. Nikkei sources published this week report that the BOJ is set to hold rates steady at 1.00% at the July meeting, citing the need to assess the lagged effects of the June hike. Market pricing reflects 96% probability of no change. The BOJ is expected to raise its real GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to approximately 0.8% alongside the decision. Board member Naoki Tamura has previously argued rates should move gradually toward a neutral level of around 2%, but the consensus view is that the BOJ will wait for further data before acting again.
The press conference and updated outlook are the key risks. Any language suggesting the next hike is imminent would be closely watched by JPY traders.
What traders are watching:
Hawkish shift / rate hike — Bullish JPY. Sends structural moves through the global carry trade. JPY surges as yield differentials narrow.
No change / passive tone — Bearish JPY. The Yen resumes pressure as investors seek better yields abroad.
Thursday, 31 July — Canada GDP (CAD) | 12:30 PM GMT
Canada’s monthly GDP report closes the week. Thursday’s release covers May data and includes the first advance estimate for June.
April GDP grew 0.5% month-on-month, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.4%, marking the strongest monthly expansion since July 2025. The advance estimate for May GDP points to a more modest 0.1% month-on-month gain, driven by finance and insurance and real estate, partly offset by declines in wholesale trade and agriculture. The Bank of Canada has held rates at 2.25% through five consecutive decisions. Vanguard Canada notes Canada slipped into a shallow technical recession over the turn of the year, with GDP falling 1.0% annualised in Q4 2025 and edging down a further 0.1% in Q1 2026, before the April rebound. Full-year 2026 GDP growth is widely forecast between 1.0% and 1.5%.
What traders are watching:
Higher than expected — Bullish CAD. Signals the Canadian economy is recovering. Reduces the case for near-term BoC easing.
Lower than expected — Bearish CAD. Confirms the soft domestic growth picture, increasing expectations for eventual BoC rate cuts.
Calendar Snapshot
| Date | Event | Currency | Time (GMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 29 Jul | Consumer Price Index (Quarterly) | AUD | 1:30 AM |
| Tue 29 Jul | FOMC Rate Statement | USD | 6:00 PM |
| Wed 30 Jul | Official Bank Rate and Policy Summary | GBP | 11:00 AM |
| Wed 30 Jul | Core PCE Price Index | USD | 12:30 PM |
| Thu 31 Jul | BOJ Policy Rate and Press Conference | JPY | Tentative |
| Thu 31 Jul | GDP | CAD | 12:30 PM |
A Quick Note on Risk
Economic data releases can cause sharp, fast moves in the market. Price can spike in both directions before settling. This week brings three central bank decisions within 48 hours, alongside major inflation and growth data. Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before you trade around major news events. For more on how funded traders approach volatile sessions, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.
