The FXIFY Trading Desk Brief: Week of 9 November 2026
Situation Report Markets reacted in opposite directions to the same US midterm result on consecutive days. On Wednesday, the Dow rose 1,569 points and oil…
Situation Report
Markets reacted in opposite directions to the same US midterm result on consecutive days. On Wednesday, the Dow rose 1,569 points and oil fell more than 8% after Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, according to AP race calls. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, and the Dow lost 1,833 points, with chip and AI stocks leading.
Reuters reported that investors were reassessing what the election result means for the AI data-center buildout. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 12%, its second-largest drop on record. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all had their worst sessions since April 2025, per FactSet.
Fed pricing moved with the equity market. CME FedWatch put the probability of a December hike at about 83% on Wednesday and roughly two-thirds on Thursday. Reuters noted that rates markets do not fully price another hike until March.
Two central banks hiked this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote and dropped September’s reference to raising rates further if needed. The Bank of England (BoE) raised Bank Rate to 4.00% on an 8-1 vote, with one member voting for 4.25%.
October Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday 6 November at 1:30 PM GMT. Tuesday’s October CPI is the last CPI before the 9 December FOMC decision, and a data gap from last year’s shutdown affects which annual rates BLS publishes.
US clocks went back on 1 November, so US releases land one hour later in GMT than before that date. NFP is at 1:30 PM GMT, not 12:30 PM GMT. All times in this brief are GMT.
Last Week in Review
RBA: hike to 4.85%, 6-3 vote, reference to further increases removed
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, the fifth hike of 2026 and the highest cash rate since 2008. Six board members voted to hike and three voted to hold. September’s hike was unanimous. The statement no longer contained September’s reference to raising the cash rate further if needed. Governor Michele Bullock said it was probably a good point to take stock, and that the last couple of hikes had yet to flow through. She also said inflation is too high and will stay higher for longer, and ABC reported that she left the door open to more increases. AUD/USD fell after the decision and fell about 1% on Thursday as risk appetite soured, per FXStreet.
Bank of England: hike to 4.00%, 8-1 vote
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00% on Thursday, the first hike since 2023. Catherine Mann voted for a 50 basis point increase to 4.25%. The Bank said CPI is expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year. In the minutes, Governor Andrew Bailey said that, absent news that softens inflation risks, he could see the argument for a further increase followed by a more conditional approach. The next decision is 17 December.
US data: labour readings above forecasts, lower price components
ISM Manufacturing rose to 55.5 in October against 54.6 expected, with Production at 59.0 and Prices Paid easing to 75.2 from 77.9. JOLTS job openings rose 333,000 to 7.523 million in September against about 7.1 million expected, and quits rose to 3.365 million. ADP private payrolls were +86,000, above the 69,000 forecast in a Reuters poll. ISM Services slipped to 54.5 from 54.9 against 54.8 expected, with Prices at 73.0 and Employment at 51.4. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 on Thursday against 196,000 expected.
Fed speakers: gradual tightening favoured
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said policy “needs to move to a restrictive stance.” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said gradual tightening makes sense, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said inflation remains too high and is unlikely to ease without further action. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no guidance on December at his 28 October press conference.
This Week’s Events
Friday 6 November: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings, October (USD) | 1:30 PM GMT | Impact: CRITICAL
The Setup
September NFP was +29,000 and August was revised to +133,000. Consensus for October is +65,000 (FactSet and a Reuters poll), with Dow Jones at 59,000 and Continuum Economics at 50,000. Revelio Labs’ alternative data, which is based on private-sector job records, showed +26,000. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings are forecast at +0.3% month-on-month after +0.1% in September, which would put the annual rate near 2.9%.
ADP (+86,000), JOLTS (7.523 million) and jobless claims (189,000) all came in better than forecast this week, following a September payroll figure of +29,000 that was below consensus. The University of Michigan releases preliminary November sentiment and inflation expectations at 3:00 PM GMT. New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman are also scheduled to speak on Friday.
The Key Number
The payroll headline against the 50,000 to 65,000 range, and the unemployment rate against 4.2%.
The Split
Bullish USD: Payrolls above 100,000 with unemployment at or below 4.2% and earnings at 0.3% or higher. December hike pricing would likely rebuild toward the roughly 83% priced before Thursday.
Bearish USD: Payrolls below 30,000 or negative, or unemployment at 4.3% or higher. December pricing would likely fall further, and pricing for the next hike would likely move out, potentially into 2027.
Tuesday 10 November: Consumer Price Index, October (USD) | 1:30 PM GMT | Impact: CRITICAL
The Setup
This is the last CPI the FOMC sees before voting on 9 December. November CPI is scheduled for 10 December, one day after the decision.
September headline CPI was +0.6% month-on-month and core was +0.3%, with shelter at +0.4%. Continuum Economics expects October headline at +0.24% and core at +0.22%, citing only a marginal gasoline increase. The Cleveland Fed nowcast, a model-based estimate, is +0.24% for headline and +0.21% for core. Core CPI rose 0.3% in both August and September, so a 0.3% print would be a third in a row.
The data gap: BLS could not collect October 2025 price data because of last year’s shutdown and did not publish October 2025 all-items or core indexes. BLS has said it will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 where the October 2025 comparison figure is missing. Month-on-month is therefore the main comparison on Tuesday. Annual estimates from third parties, such as the Cleveland Fed’s 3.74% headline and Nowflation’s 3.82%, are model estimates, not BLS figures. The release tables will show which annual rates BLS includes.
The Key Number
Core CPI month-on-month. A 0.2% print matches forecasts. A 0.3% print would be the third consecutive reading at that level.
The Split
Bullish USD: Core at 0.3% or higher. December hike pricing would likely rebuild, and the next hike would likely be priced earlier than March.
Bearish USD: Core at 0.2% or lower. It would support the repricing that pushed the next hike later.
Wednesday 11 November: Veterans Day (USD) | All day | Impact: LIQUIDITY
The Setup
Veterans Day is a US federal holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq trade normal hours. SIFMA, the bond industry group, recommends a full close of the US bond market, and Federal Reserve Banks are closed. No major US data release is scheduled. With cash Treasury trading not scheduled, the bond market’s reaction to Tuesday’s CPI has no regular US session on Wednesday. Treasury and rate-futures session hours vary by venue.
Thursday 12 November: UK GDP, Q3 First Estimate and September Monthly (GBP) | 7:00 AM GMT | Impact: HIGH
The Setup
UK GDP grew 0.5% in Q2 (revised from 0.4%) and 0.6% in Q1. Monthly growth was +0.4% in July and +0.1% in August. Trading Economics forecasts +0.4% for Q3 and +0.2% for September, and no published consensus was available at the time of writing.
The Bank of England has just hiked and projects CPI near 5% by mid-2027. Q3 covers July to September, when Bank Rate was 3.75%, so the data is the baseline against which further tightening will be judged.
The Key Number
Q3 quarter-on-quarter against 0.4%, and September month-on-month against 0.2%.
The Split
Bullish GBP: Q3 at or above 0.4% with a positive September. It supports the case for further BoE tightening.
Bearish GBP: Q3 well below 0.4% or a September contraction. It would add to the case for caution on further tightening.
US initial jobless claims also release at 1:30 PM GMT on Thursday (Impact: MEDIUM). The last reading was 189,000 and the four-week average was 194,750.
Friday 13 November: Producer Price Index, October (USD) | 1:30 PM GMT | Impact: HIGH
The Setup
September PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, with energy goods up 10.8% and core PPI excluding food, energy and trade up 0.5%. No October consensus had been published at the time of writing. Oil is the main driver of headline swings: WTI fell 8.3% on Wednesday to $88.12 and reversed higher on Thursday on renewed Gulf supply concerns.
The Key Number
The energy component against the core measure excluding food, energy and trade.
The Split
Bullish USD: Core PPI at or above September’s 0.5%, which would show pipeline pressure outside energy.
Bearish USD: A soft headline with core easing. It would be consistent with the easing price components in this week’s ISM data.
The Call
Friday 6 November’s NFP and Tuesday’s CPI will show whether Thursday’s repricing holds. A December hike moved from about 83% to roughly two-thirds in one session, and that move followed an equity selloff, not a data release. Data can confirm it or reverse it. The FOMC sees only one more CPI before its vote, and November CPI arrives the day after the decision.
Two central banks hiked this week with different guidance. The RBA hiked on a 6-3 vote and dropped September’s reference to further increases, while Bullock said inflation will stay higher for longer. The BoE hiked on 8-1, and its projections point to higher inflation. The US rates market has pushed its next hike toward March. Thursday’s UK GDP is the next major growth release after the BoE’s decision.
Oil moved sharply in both halves of the week. It fell more than 8% on Wednesday and rebounded on Thursday. Energy drove September’s headline CPI and PPI, and October gasoline rose only marginally, so Tuesday’s headline may show less energy effect than September’s did.
Levels at Thursday’s close: the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.84%, the 2-year near 4.46%, and the Dollar Index near 101.6. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled for a moderated Q&A on Monday 9 November.
After this week: October retail sales on Tuesday 17 November, UK CPI on Wednesday 18 November, Australia’s October jobs data on Thursday 19 November, Q3 GDP second estimate and October PCE on Wednesday 25 November, the FOMC decision on Wednesday 9 December, and the BoE on Thursday 17 December.
Calendar
| Date | Event | CCY | Time GMT | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct) | USD | 1:30 PM | CRITICAL |
| Fri 6 Nov | Unemployment Rate (Oct) | USD | 1:30 PM | CRITICAL |
| Fri 6 Nov | Average Hourly Earnings (Oct) | USD | 1:30 PM | HIGH |
| Fri 6 Nov | UMich Consumer Sentiment, preliminary (Nov) | USD | 3:00 PM | MEDIUM |
| Tue 10 Nov | Consumer Price Index (Oct) | USD | 1:30 PM | CRITICAL |
| Wed 11 Nov | Veterans Day, US bond market closed (SIFMA) | USD | All day | LIQUIDITY |
| Thu 12 Nov | GDP Q3 first estimate and September monthly | GBP | 7:00 AM | HIGH |
| Thu 12 Nov | Initial Jobless Claims | USD | 1:30 PM | MEDIUM |
| Fri 13 Nov | Producer Price Index (Oct) | USD | 1:30 PM | HIGH |
Upcoming releases after this week:
- Tue 17 Nov: October retail sales
- Wed 18 Nov: UK CPI (Oct)
- Thu 19 Nov: Australia labour force (Oct)
- Wed 25 Nov: Q3 GDP second estimate and October PCE
- Wed 9 Dec: FOMC rate decision
- Thu 10 Dec: November CPI
Risk Notice
Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before trading around this week’s releases. NFP, Tuesday’s CPI and Thursday’s UK GDP each carry the potential for fast, multi-directional price action, and equity volatility rose sharply on Thursday 5 November. US releases arrive one hour later in GMT than before 1 November, so check release times against your platform clock. For more on managing volatility as a funded trader, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.
