Weekly Market Preview: What’s Moving the Markets This Week (6–10 July)

Four high-impact releases hit USD, NZD, and CAD this week, covering a central bank rate decision, meeting minutes, a major activity index, and labour data. Wednesday is the busiest day on the calendar, with two major catalysts landing within hours of each other.

Here is the full breakdown.

Monday, 6 July — ISM Services PMI (USD) | 2:00 PM GMT

Since roughly 80% of the US economy is driven by services, including sectors like technology, banking, and healthcare, the ISM Services PMI is one of the most closely watched indicators of US economic momentum. It sets the tone for the Dollar heading into the rest of the week.

The ISM Services PMI came in at 54.5 in May, up from 53.6 in April, beating forecasts of 53.8 and marking the strongest services sector reading in three months. Business activity rose to 57.7, new orders climbed to 57.3, and the prices index hit 71.3, the highest reading since August 2022, driven largely by fuel, diesel, and petroleum-related commodities linked to the Middle East conflict. The employment sub-index contracted for a third consecutive month at 47.9, with respondents citing hiring freezes across several industries.

The 50-point mark is the dividing line. Above it signals expansion. Below it signals contraction.

What traders are watching:

Above 50.0 — Bullish USD. The core of the US economy is still growing, reducing pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

Below 50.0 — Bearish USD. A reading below 50 would signal that the largest part of the economy is slowing, strengthening the case for rate cuts.

Wednesday, 8 July — RBNZ Official Cash Rate (NZD) | 2:00 AM GMT

This is the main event for the New Zealand Dollar. Any surprise in the RBNZ’s tone or decision will produce sharp moves in NZD pairs.

The RBNZ held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% at its May meeting, but only after a 3-3 split vote, forcing Governor Anna Breman to cast the deciding vote to hold. Three external members of the Monetary Policy Committee had wanted a 25-basis-point hike at that meeting, while the three RBNZ members voted to hold. The committee agreed that rates would need to rise, and soon.

A Reuters poll taken between 29 June and 3 July shows 22 of 28 economists now expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the July 8 meeting, making it the first increase in more than three years. Inflation in New Zealand is running at 3.1%, above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band, and surveyed economists do not expect it to return to that range at any point in 2026.

The key complicating factor is oil prices. Since the May meeting, US-Iran developments have pushed crude prices sharply lower, from near $100 per barrel to below $70 per barrel. ASB and Westpac have shifted to a hold call, citing the rapid fall in fuel prices as reducing the near-term inflation risk. ANZ and BNZ still expect a hike. Markets are currently pricing a 75% probability of a hike.

The decision is not settled. Both outcomes remain possible given current economic conditions.

What traders are watching:

Rate hike — Bullish NZD. Signals the RBNZ is not ready to ease and is prioritising inflation control. NZD strengthens.

Hold with hawkish statement — Mixed NZD. No move, but the statement signals September is live for a hike. NZD may see limited upside as markets have partially priced in further hikes.

Hold with soft tone — Bearish NZD. If the committee focuses on growth concerns, the Kiwi Dollar weakens as rate-hike expectations are pushed out.

Wednesday, 8 July — FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD) | 6:00 PM GMT

The FOMC Minutes are the detailed record of what Federal Reserve members discussed behind closed doors at the June 16–17 meeting. Traders use this document to look past the public statement and find signals about where the committee is actually heading.

At the June meeting, the FOMC voted 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. The statement noted that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, productivity growth and capital investment are strong, and inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% target.

The June Summary of Economic Projections showed the median federal funds rate forecast for 2026 increased, implying the potential for one rate hike before year-end. PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were revised up from 2.7% to 3.6%. This was the first meeting chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The dot plot now leans toward at least one hike rather than a cut, a meaningful shift from earlier in the year.

The Minutes will show how much internal debate surrounded that shift, and whether any members are pushing for a rate move at the July 28–29 meeting.

What traders are watching:

Emphasis on “higher for longer” — Bullish USD. Shows the Fed is still focused on inflation and not preparing to cut. Dollar strengthens.

Internal discussion of rate cuts — Bearish USD. If members are arguing for cuts, rate cut expectations build and the Dollar weakens.

Thursday, 10 July — Canada Unemployment Rate (CAD) | 12:30 PM GMT

Canada’s monthly jobs report. Coming directly after last week’s US NFP, traders use this release to check whether North American labour market trends are moving in the same direction. It is a key driver of the USD/CAD pair each month.

Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in May from 6.9% in April, the lowest since January and firmly below market expectations that it would remain at 6.9%. Net employment rose by 87,800, the sharpest job growth since December 2024, driven by full-time work, construction, and transportation.

RBC Economics is forecasting the unemployment rate to hold at 6.6% in June, matching May’s reading. RBC expects June’s labour market to broadly hold onto gains from May, with jobs edging higher by around 10,000. Unemployment remains elevated by historical standards. The Bank of Canada has held rates at 2.25% through four consecutive meetings, and the June labor report will feed directly into its next policy assessment.

What traders are watching:

Low unemployment — Bullish CAD. Shows a resilient economy that can handle the current rate environment, reducing the case for BoC cuts.

High unemployment — Bearish CAD. Puts pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower rates, which would weaken the Loonie.

Calendar Snapshot

Date	Event	Currency	Time (GMT)
Mon 6 Jul	ISM Services PMI	USD	2:00 PM
Wed 8 Jul	Official Cash Rate	NZD	2:00 AM
Wed 8 Jul	FOMC Meeting Minutes	USD	6:00 PM
Thu 10 Jul	Unemployment Rate	CAD	12:30 PM

A Quick Note on Risk

Economic data releases can cause sharp, fast moves in the market. Price can spike in both directions before settling. Make sure you understand how your FXIFY account drawdown rules work before you trade around major news events. For more on how funded traders approach volatile sessions, see our guides on trading styles for funded traders and how news events affect prop traders.